Market Data
warningUrgency / Risk

Maturity Wall Countdown

Visualize the refinance wall, assess property risk by vintage, and prepare your portfolio for upcoming maturity events.

Data as of Q2 2026 · Sources: Federal Reserve (FRED), CoStar, CBRE Research
2026 Maturities
$68B
First major wave
2027 Peak
$75B
Maturity wall zenith
Total 2026-27
$143B
Critical period
Avg Rate Shock
+185bps
Refi step-up

Annual Maturity Schedule (Maturity Wall)

Each "brick" represents loan volume due that year. Striped pattern indicates heightened refinance pressure.

$45B
2024
Already Matured
$56B
2025
Already Matured
$68B
2026
Current Year
$75B
2027
Peak Wall Year
$62B
2028
Elevated
$48B
2029
Declining

What the Wall Means

2026-2027 Pressure: $143B in combined maturities creates peak refinancing demand. Limited lender capacity may force repricing or extensions.
Rate Shock Exposure: Loans originated at 2021-22 rates (2-3.5%) face refi at 6.5-7.5%, creating $1.5-2.0M annual payment jumps on $10M loans.

Risk Matrix: Property Type vs. Loan Vintage

Property Type2021 Vintage2022 Vintage2023 Vintage2024 Vintage
Grocery/Pharmacy
LOW
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
IG Retail
LOW
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
Quick Service
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
HIGH
VERY HIGH
Convenience
MEDIUM
HIGH
HIGH
VERY HIGH
Experiential
HIGH
HIGH
VERY HIGH
CRITICAL
Key Insight: Earlier vintages (2021-2022) have lower risk due to conservative original pricing and property quality. 2023-2024 vintage loans face heightened risk: originated at elevated rates with slower depreciation, now facing maturity into higher refi costs and potential cap rate expansion.

Maturity Event Countdowns

CRITICAL

Next Maturity Wave

14
Months Away
HIGH

Peak Wall Year (2027)

26
Months Away
MONITOR

Post-Wall Normalization

38
Months Away

Risk Mitigation Strategies

schedule

Extension Options

58% of loans have extension options. Cost: typically +100-150bps for 1-3 year extensions.

trending_up

Rate Locks

Lock in refi rates 12-18 months before maturity if market conditions favorable.

account_balance

Lender Relationships

Maintain existing lender relationships. Banks prefer renewals to new originations.

home_finance

Loan Bifurcation

Split senior/junior tranches to improve refi terms for weaker assets.

sell

Asset Sales

Sell highest-priced assets pre-maturity to avoid forced refi at peak stress.

balance

Portfolio Laddering

Stagger maturity dates across years to avoid simultaneous refi pressure.

Stay Ahead of the Maturity Wall

Subscribe for monthly maturity wall updates, extension opportunity alerts, and refi market intelligence.

Subscribe Free

Related Resources

water_dropCapital Flow PipelinethermostatRisk Zone Thermometerwaterfall_chartBond Tranche Waterfallhome_financeFinancing Environmentmonitor_heartCredit MonitorpolicyLending Standards

Maturity wall projections and risk assessments are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment or refinancing advice. Actual loan maturities, extension options, and refinancing costs vary by loan, lender, and market conditions. Consult with your lender, financial advisor, and counsel before making refinancing decisions. Market data current as of date shown; conditions change rapidly.

ScoreOM