Liquidity, Not Flows, Driving Unusual Treasury Sell-Off Dynamics

Executive Summary U.S. Treasury markets are undergoing a repricing that is unusually technical rather than flow-driven. Since late February, the 10-year yield has climbed roughly 45 basis points, yet primary dealer balance sheet data and fund flow indicators show no corresponding surge in outright selling. Instead, the move has coincided with deteriorating liquidity conditions—bid-ask spreads in on-the-run Treasurys... The post Liquidity, Not Flows, Driving Unusual Treasury Sell-Off Dynam