When “Safe” Isn’t So Safe: How the Iran War Scrambled the Bond Market Playbook

Summary

Executive Summary The fixed-income playbook is being challenged as geopolitical tensions collide with evolving macro risks, upending traditional assumptions about safety and diversification.

Since the onset of the Iran conflict, bond markets have delivered an unexpected message: higher-risk credit is outperforming while long-duration Treasuries—typically the cornerstone of defensive positioning—have come under pressure, forcing allocators to...