Who Blinks First: A Patient Fed or a Jittery Bond Market?

Executive Summary U.S. Treasury traders are steadily pricing in a stickier inflation problem than the Federal Reserve is signaling, with front‑ and long‑end yields grinding back toward their wartime peaks as the Iran conflict keeps oil above $100 a barrel. Market‑ implied inflation expectations have broken higher, particularly at the 5‑year horizon, even as Fed funds futures...