When to Refinance: The Strategic Framework
In the current higher-for-longer environment (Fed at 3.50-3.75%, CPI at 3.4%), refinancing economics are selective rather than universally favorable. The best candidates are borrowers who financed in late 2022 or 2023 at 7.5%+ rates — CMBS conduit rates at 6.35% offer meaningful savings for those cohorts. Properties financed during the 2024 rate-cut window at sub-6% rates have no incentive to refi. Debt availability surged 52% YoY, meaning more lenders competing for deals — shop aggressively for terms.