2026 Market Forecasts

Key Findings

The 2026 rate environment remains elevated but stabilizing. 10-Year Treasury yields at 4.69% with CPI moderating to 3.4% in July — still above the Fed's 2% target but trending down. NNN cap rates averaged 6.82% in Q2 2026 per Boulder Group, with meaningful spread differentiation by tenant credit quality. Industrial NNN properties are holding near 5.5% average reflecting strong operational demand. Retail NNN cap rates sit at 6.8-7.2% as tenant credit differentiation drives pricing. Office NNN cap rates have widened to 7.8-8.5% as higher rates compound hybrid work headwinds. Medical office and specialty healthcare remain a bright spot at 5.8-6.2%, benefiting from essential service demand and aging demographics.

H1 2026 NNN transaction volume of $33.6B is tracking to set a new full-year record of $67-70B, surpassing 2025's $66.8B. Q1 hit $16.8B (up 12% YoY) and Q2 is tracking at $16.8B. 1031 exchange activity continues to generate $10-12B quarterly reinvestment demand. Despite rising Treasury yields, deal velocity remains strong as investors seek inflation-hedged income from NNN leases with annual escalators. Portfolio acquisition activity comprises 55% of volume with institutional consolidation accelerating. Energy cost inflation is creating selective opportunities in distressed retail dispositions.

The 2026 macro environment remains in a holding pattern. CPI moderated to 3.4% in July — down from its spring peak but still above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed has held rates at 3.50-3.75% through six consecutive meetings with no cuts priced through year-end. 10-Year Treasury yields have climbed to 4.69%, reflecting sticky inflation expectations and fiscal deficit concerns. GDP growth is running at 1.8-2.1% — resilient but moderating. CMBS conduit spreads at 6.35% and delinquency rates at 4.82% signal manageable stress. NNN investors should model for 4.5-5.0% 10-Year yields through H2 2026.

Industrial logistics expected to maintain 65-70% deal flow dominance as supply chain normalization and e-commerce growth continue supporting tenant demand and valuation premiums. Retail sector forecast to stabilize at 22-25% deal flow as consolidation removes weakest tenants and essential services outperformance continues. Office sector expected to remain challenged at 3-5% deal flow, with Class B properties facing difficult market conditions. Specialty sectors (self-storage, automotive, QSR) forecast to grow to 8-10% deal flow as investors seek diversification and alternative yield opportunities. Geographic composition expected to maintain tier-1 at 35-40% and tier-2 growth markets at 60-65%.

Looking Ahead

The 2026 NNN market outlook is constructive with cap rate stability supporting continued portfolio investor demand and transaction volume growth. Industrial logistics will likely command the bulk of new capital deployment while retail stabilization creates selective opportunities. The market fundamentals remain sound with investment-grade tenant quality, lease renewal rates exceeding 94%, and geographic diversification opportunities. Portfolio investors should continue emphasizing quality industrial logistics, essential retail services, and geographic diversification into tier-2 growth markets. Market risks include potential economic slowdown in H2 2026, further office sector deterioration, and potential Fed rate increases if inflation re-accelerates. Base case scenario supports 5.1% cap rate environment and $35B transaction volume.

Research and analysis on this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment, financial, or tax advice. Forward-looking projections are estimates based on current market conditions and may not reflect actual outcomes. Data should be verified with primary sources before use in investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.